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cybersecurity predictions 2021

What does 2021 have in store for cybersecurity?

  • min read
    • Predicting the future is notoriously precarious. Who would have foreseen a year like 2020? Kaspersky's Global Research and Analysis Team reflect on this year in cybercrime and deduce what we should expect in 2021. Leaked patient records and COVID pressures in healthcare 2020 was the year everyone had a vested interest in new medical technologies' success. Cybercriminals attacked medical devices, hospitals and research institutions, intent on stealing COVID-19 vaccine insights. We also saw the first known directly fatal cyberattack: A patient died because ransomware infection of medical equipment caused care delays. Other cybercrime groups surprised us by ruling out attacking medical institutions. The cybersecurity community set up CTI League: Experts helping medical organizations respond to cyberthreats. Kaspersky gave healthcare organizations free access to tailored cybersecurity. In 2021, expect more attacks on COVID-19 vaccine developers attempting to steal critical data that could help other nations get ahead. Private healthcare organizations will further come under attack, as many don't have the resources to protect valuable patient data. With the transition to cloud computing, we may see patient data leaks from cloud services. Criminals can use personal data in hacked medical records to dupe people into revealing more. More healthcare industry cybersecurity predictions for 2021 Cybercriminals have learned about industrial networks Attacks on industrial networks will become more targeted. By watching randomly infected machines, cybercrime groups have learned organizations' IT setup and know how to exploit it. They can then on-sell network access to more sophisticated cybercrime groups who will take control of finance systems to steal cash. As many industrial control systems (ICS) use old operating systems, the end of support for systems like Windows 7 creates an exploitable loophole. We could see another significant, multi-industry crime campaign like WannaCry. As utilities and government services go through digital transformation they're more vulnerable to attack. Cybercriminals can use a government service as an entry point into industrial systems to disrupt services like public transport. In 2020, COVID-19 restrictions on working on-site delayed IT-system upgrades. During an attack, it may be harder for IT admins to regain system control quickly. Basic malware could spread and become more serious. Upgrading endpoint security and training workers are vital. More industrial cybersecurity predictions for 2021 Online education revolution brought new threats Education changed abruptly in 2020. 1.5 billion students took classes from home. Educators had to learn new skills, like running a class on Zoom or using TikTok lessons. For those who can access the technology, these new services enhance education. But they come with new threats. Learning management systems (LMS) like Google Classroom are exploding. And with growth comes cybercrime. We saw a staggering 20,000 percent growth in threats to online learning platforms between 2019 and 2020. Privacy usually involves getting the user's consent, but a child can't easily manage their privacy settings. Video will keep growing as a learning tool. About 60 percent of teachers use YouTube in the classroom. There's increased risk of exposure to age-inappropriate content, and new threats like Zoombombing could expose learners to harmful content. Games like Minecraft are a great way to make learning more interactive but exposes students to risks like cyberbullying, trolls and malicious files. Teachers must moderate content in their learning management systems, but with the popularity of social platforms and games for pupil engagement, the challenge has leveled-up. More education cybersecurity predictions for 2021 Poverty driving more financial cybercrime in 2021 In 2021, financial companies became less secure thanks to due hastily deployed remote working solutions. Some bought retail laptops that didn't match the security standards of the organization. Limited employee training, default configurations and remote access all contributed to increased attacks. There's rising extortion using distributed denial of service (DDoS) and ransomware. Targeted ransomware is the new normal for financial organizations. Criminals increased ransoms, emboldened by successful attacks and media coverage. To cover their tracks, they'll now expect you to pay in cryptocurrencies. People are often the weakest link, like in the failed attempt to infiltrate Tesla. Stay at home orders didn't affect cybercriminals: Brazilian cybercrime groups went global in 2020, expanding to Europe and beyond, including attempts to hack ATMs. Bigger crime groups are evolving their business models to boost profits by hiring more people within their virtual walls rather than outsourcing. To crack down on cybercrime, the US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control warned of sanctions for organizations facilitating ransom payment. Next, we predict sanctions against institutions and nations that don't combat cybercrime coming from their territory. More financial cybersecurity predictions for 2021 Crime gangs collaborating on advanced threats Advanced persistent threats (APTs) are the most dangerous kind of attacks, often seen in geopolitical clashes, intent on harming national interests. With the trend towards improved organization security and more people working from home, crime groups will exploit network technologies such as virtual private networks (VPNs,) using social engineering to get access. 5G is big news, with bogus stories of health risks and some nations limiting or banning Huawei products in their 5G infrastructure. Security researchers are examining Huawei and other 5G providers for implementation flaws. If found, they'll make the front pages. As more devices depend on 5G for connectivity, attackers will have more incentive to seek vulnerabilities to exploit. As ransomware becomes the weapon of choice for many criminals, we may see ransomware players' concentrate. In 2020 the Maze and Sodinokibi gangs pioneered an affiliate collaboration model. These bigger groups may combine to deliver APT-style attacks that overwhelm a target organization's system, to access specific data. We'll likely see attacks like these disrupt everyday lives. It could be an intentional attack on critical infrastructure like utilities or collateral damage from ransomware targeting big organizations we all rely on, like supermarkets, mail or public transport. More advanced threat predictions for 2021 Threats may be increasing, but fortunately, there's better education, technology and intelligence available today to help your organization stay secure and face the future.
threat intelligence

How threat intelligence evolved, and where it will go next

  • min read
    • Cybersecurity has always been about the intelligence that powers the tools. It's this intelligence that battles the minds that make malware. The epicenter of the battle is identifying and analyzing threats, or threat intelligence. What makes it threat intelligence, rather than threat data, is analysis. To understand why threat intelligence will be so crucial in cybersecurity's future, we need to visit the museum of its evolution. More innocent times: The noughties Mulholland Drive was in cinemas; Shaggy and Destiny's Child sold CDs by the bucket. Email was standard for business, but less so for personal use. Anyone geeky enough to 'surf the net' for fun might visit an internet café to use a coveted, futurist desktop iMac. A revolution in attractive hardware, it looked like the candy-colored offspring of motorcycle helmet and refrigerator produce compartment. The precursors to threat intelligence started appearing at this time. First, there were IP and URL blacklists. Security software like Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) systems, and next-generation firewalls (NGFWs) used the blacklists to give alerts and reports. Security researchers manually searched for threats and sent daily updates to customers. The bright, new digital past: 2010 It was the year Iceland's Mount Eyjafjallajökull grounded flights across Europe with a cloud of ash. Everyone was talking about Wikileaks and the Arab spring. Facebook and Twitter had become household names, but were far less used by marketers and brands. The dark web and malign activities were exploding, showing the limits of the day's security software. It wasn't designed to process the number of Indicators of Compromise pelting down like a deluge of frogs. They couldn't identify and process the dust storms of malicious domains, IPs and other threats. The cybersecurity industry responded. Machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) could automate and correlate data on a new scale. With millions of sensors, their data feeds netted oceans of information. They processed and analyzed it with big data tools. These systems began to be used to perform complex detection covering all attack surfaces. And the big data technology gave birth to the idea of threat intelligence. Machine meets human: 2015 It was the year of Je Suis Charlie, as many sided with French satirists against terrorism. 195 countries reached agreement over the Paris Climate Accord, but the color of a dress divided the world firmly into two camps. Security experts overseeing intelligence collection could reduce false positives and better see threats and attack methods specific to their organizations. It meant faster detection and response, and a change of emphasis to finding and prioritizing vulnerabilities. The world we now know From 2018, the threat intelligence industry ballooned. Hundreds of new companies popped up, offering targeted services focused on data quality. Their goal was to give guidelines for decisions and actions. The companies buying threat intelligence products and services started using them more effectively, for example, adapting their data collection for security needs. By 2019 the industry had adopted a shared understanding of what threat intelligence means. Bear with me – this chain has a few links. Threat intelligence means multiple sources giving relevant, targeted data. The data must be converted into information that can be immediately used. It must be integrated into an organization's security operations through a single entry point, and communicate seamlessly with their existing security controls. Its unique insights on emerging threats will let security teams prioritize alerts, maximize resources and make fast decisions. And what of 2020 onwards? The market is still growing. Research suggests threat intelligence could be worth 13 billion US dollars by 2023. Ever smaller organizations are starting to use threat intelligence. But in the main, this will be a new era of cooperation. To be more comprehensive, cybersecurity vendors are already integrating their products and services with others. Cybersecurity will move from reactive to proactive, while the role of security teams in organizations will grow. They'll interact more at all levels and with all business groups. They'll become responsible for delivering proactive threat intelligence that not only protects, but identifies risk and shapes business goals. Threat intelligence will effectively predict and prevent attacks at the earliest stage, and sooner or later, underpin the whole concept of proactive cybersecurity and organizational risk. This article was published in April, 2020.
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Secure Futures magazine is your go-to business guide for opinions, trends and insight into the world of technology and cybersecurity. We help your business to bring on the future. Brought to you by Kaspersky, the global cybersecurity experts.

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